The Ante Hoc Fallacy

Whenever I argue with conspiracy theorists, I often run into a kind of logical fallacy that I’d like to dub the ante hoc fallacy. In the post hoc, ergo propter hoc (“after this, therefore because of this”) fallacy, the reasoner assumes that because one event follows another, the second was caused by the first. In the ante hoc (“before this”) fallacy, … Continued

Michael Pollan: Do gas stations “make more on food than gas”?

I recently came across this Facebook meme that claims that gas stations “now make more money selling food than gasoline,” attributed to popular food critic Michael Pollan. First, he really did say this (more or less) in his booklet Food Rules: Don’t get your fuel from the same place your car does. Gas stations in … Continued

Uber’s Lobbying Strategy Fails Again: California declares new carpooling services illegal

Over the past few months, Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar have rolled out another innovative a ridesharing service, this time to allow carpooling between people who commute along similar routes and want to split the cost. Great, right? The problem is that California regulators have just declared this new service to be illegal. …The state’s Public Utilities Commission has … Continued

“You don’t seem to have any reasons.” Posner eviscerates arguments for “traditional” marriage laws

In oral arguments for the gay marriage case Wolf v. Walker (mp3) on Tuesday, Judge Richard Posner took aim at Wisconsin’s Attorney General Timothy Samuelson right of the gate. Posner: “Why doesn’t Wisconsin permit joint adoption by same-sex couples?” Samuelson: “Uh, respectfully your honor, uh, that’s a question for the legislature, uh I don’t have a … Continued

By the Numbers: Methodological Notes on Police Fatalities and Assaults

My inbox and Facebook comments are awash with angry protestations about my article on law enforcement fatalities and my follow up post on police assaults and injuries. This is a charged and complex issue, and there are many different ways of looking at it, so I anticipated this. Here are some notes about the methodology I used to study the … Continued